So welcome to one of regular features when our blog poster does a very bad impersonation of Guildo Fawks. After all the original Fawkes was trying to blow up my side!!!
Now Scottish independence. You of course know that there is this referendum next year. You also know that once Independent there are a number of issues Scotland will face.
Number 1: What currency shall we use. (a lessor blogger than me, would suggest the deep fried Mars Bars at this point, but I don't deal in that kind of low base humour, so I'm going to suggest that Scotland enter a currency union with the UK and the Bank of England operates in best interest of both independent nations. Oh hang on the idea that the bunch of public school Englishmen who currently run the UK agreeing to that is even more hysterical that using battered sugary snacks and even more unlikely.)
Number 2: the tele. Not to difficult this one. I'm guessing they get BBC Scotland and we get S4C.
Number 3: International Relations. I'm guessing they'll want to join NATO. Not to much of a problem there as I'm guessing the UK would quite like US help to defend her new northern border from the Chinese, Russians, North Korea or whoever. And of course membership of the EU.
Ah! Hang on let's just read this story.
Why did head of the European Commission just scotch the case for Independence? It was a breathtaking entry into national politics. The short shrift he got from the SNP shows how key this one is. If Scotland were locked out of all the markets of its main trading partners that would kill independence.
I think the European Commission will stick to its guns and I think their opinion will be the opinion of the EU. Why do I think that? Well nobody pointing this out has really explained that one so I'll try.
You see I don't think an independent Scotland would be a problem for the EU, but there are other Nations with stubborn independence movements. Notably Spain.
Now Spain currently is in the Euro, it is financially in bad shape and by most reckoning is far too big to fail. By coincidence it is one of the richer parts of Spain which is threatening to pull away. They are threatening this because they are having to bail out the rest of Spain. If they go this will be a disaster for Spain, and then for the the Euro and then for the EU. The head of the European Commission has to stop that.
In ten years time and Independent Catalan and then an Independent Scotland could be something the EU supports and welcomes. But not in 2014. So expect more cold water to be poured from Brussels onto the SNP's hopes and dreams this year.
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There are a number of issues for Scottish independence, among which is the status of their soldiers serving a foreign power? Would they be categorised as mercenaries.
Could an independent Scotland support the size and number of Armed Forces to defend it's territory and to cope with it's proposed membership of NATO, which requires deployable forces?
Another is that the defence industry is a major employer. Once Scotland goes independent and anti-nuclear, than they wipe out any advantages of defence locating there. Faslane is a major employer in the local economy. Devenport would love to see it closed and relocated there. Would the voters vote for the demise of their sole employment?
Lossiemouth, which is set to become an Army base, would close, I wonder if the voters there are considering their employment future.
The Scottish government says it will benefit from the oil and gas revenues from the North Sea. These are declining having been exploited to their limit. The development of fields with hard to extract resources would be exceedingly expensive - would any energy company be prepared to take the risk alone? The Scottish government would find itself having to subsidize these costs.
The impact of independence will be a drain of resources, financial, logistical and commercial away from Scotland, to safer, English or Welsh bases, where labour might well be cheaper.
The Scottish experiment and economy is currently underwritten to a large extent by the taxpayers of England and Wales - this subsidy would cease, requiring increasing local taxation in Scotland - will the electorate be told this and vote for it?
And as for Europe. Dreams of grandeur from the current PM would seem to me to be behind it. Adopt the Euro by any means, and instantly devalue your currency and compete on an unfair basis against the English and Welsh Economy - bring it on :)
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